QA686 : Maximum likelihood estimation of the Hull-White model
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Mathematical Sciences > MSc > 2025
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Abstarct: Aabstract
In this thesis, the Hull-White model is applied to predict the price of Sekeh Emami
using daily data from 1395/01/05 to 1402/12/07 and the maximum likelihood estimation
method. The main objective of the research is to estimate the parameters
of the Hull-White model and evaluate the accuracy and effectiveness of this model
in predicting the volatility and price trends of Sekeh Emami.
Initially, the price data of Sekeh Emami was collected and processed from reliable
sources. Then, the Hull-White model was simulated using statistical methods
and the R software, and the key parameters of the model, including the mean reversion
rate (α), volatility (σ), and long-term mean rate (θ), were estimated. The
simulation results and statistical analyses indicated that the Hull-White model
effectively models the volatility and price behavior of Sekeh Emami.
In the final section, suggestions for improving the model and future research
are provided, including sensitivity analysis of parameters, comparison with other
models, adding important economic variables, and utilizing machine learning techniques.
The results of this study show that the Hull-White model can be used as an
effective tool in predicting the price of Sekeh Emami and managing risk in financial
markets.
Keywords:
#_Hull-White model #predicting the price #Sekeh Emami #Maximum likelihoodestimation method #Interest rate #volatility #R software Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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