HA663 : Sovereign Credit Rating Determination in Emerging Economies: A Case Study of Iraq
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2026
Authors:
[Author], Sayyed Mojtaba Mirlohi[Supervisor], [Supervisor], Majid Ameri[Advisor]
Abstarct: Sovereign credit ratings are among the most important indicators in the international macroeconomic environment, playing a crucial role in attracting foreign investment, reducing borrowing costs, and promoting economic stability. Iraq, as an emerging oil-dependent economy, has continuously faced structural challenges related to financial stability and public debt management. Identifying the determinants of the country's sovereign credit rating is important not only from an academic perspective but also for policymakers seeking to strengthen economic structures and enhance the confidence of international financial markets. Accordingly, the primary objective of this study is to investigate the effects of key macroeconomic variables, including economic growth, inflation, and the government's fiscal position, on Iraq's sovereign credit rating in order to determine which factors exert the greatest influence on improving or weakening the country's international creditworthiness. This research is applied in terms of its objective and adopts a descxriptive-analytical approach in terms of its methodology. The study examines the Iraqi economy over the four-year period from 2022 to 2025. The required data were collected from reliable domestic and international sources. To test the research hypotheses and estimate the proposed model, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method within a panel data frxamework was employed. The empirical findings indicate that the government's fiscal position has a positive and statistically significant effect on Iraq's sovereign credit rating, suggesting that improvements in fiscal health contribute to higher creditworthiness. In contrast, both the economic growth rate and the inflation rate were found to be statistically insignificant. These results imply that, in an emerging economy such as Iraq, fiscal stability and structural financial reforms have a more substantial impact on sovereign credit ratings than short-term fluctuations in economic growth or inflation. Furthermore, the descxriptive analysis revealed that the credit rating variable exhibits a non-normal distribution with considerable dispersion, highlighting the need for caution when interpreting the empirical results.
Keywords:
#Inflation Rate #Sovereign Credit Rating #Budget Deficit #Economic Growth Rate. Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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