HA651 : A Systemic Analysis of the Economic Impacts of War in Iraq Using a System Dynamics Approach
Thesis > Central Library of Shahrood University > Industrial Engineering & Management > MSc > 2026
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This study aims to analyze macroeconomic dynamics under conditions of instability and insecurity by examining the interactions among key variables including human capital, physical capital, employment, security level, institutional capacity, and investment flows. The System Dynamics approach is employed, utilizing both Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD) and Stock-and-Flow Structures (SFD) to capture the complex feedback relationships within the system.
The developed model simulates the dynamic effects of insecurity, institutional erosion, and capital flight on economic growth, employment creation, and the accumulation of human and physical capital. In addition, different policy scenarios, including improvements in security conditions, institutional reforms, and variations in investment flows, are evaluated.
The findings indicate that increasing insecurity leads to reduced investment, weakened human capital, and declining employment, whereas improvements in institutional capacity and security significantly enhance economic growth trajectories. The results also highlight the critical role of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in long-term economic dynamics.
Ultimately, the model serves as an analytical tool for policymakers to assess the impacts of security and institutional policies on economic growth and sustainable development.
Keywords:
#System Dynamics #Human Capital #Physical Capital #Security #Investment #Capital Flight #Institutions #Economic Growth Keeping place: Central Library of Shahrood University
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