Abstarct: Reliable electricity supply is one of the fundamental requirements for economic, social, and industrial development. Any imbalance between electricity supply and demand can reduce grid reliability, increase power shortages, and weaken the performance of different economic and social sectors. This study aims to analyze the dynamic behavior of electricity supply and demand and evaluate the effects of different policy scenarios on reducing the supply–demand gap. For this purpose, the system dynamics approach was applied, and the model was developed and simulated using Vensim DSS software. The main variables of the model include electricity demand, effective electricity supply capacity, electricity infrastructure investment, distribution network quality, annual supply, supply–demand gap, demand coverage, and grid reliability. The simulation horizon was set from 2025 to 2045, and five scenarios were examined: the baxse scenario, infrastructure investment scenario, demand management scenario, network quality improvement scenario, and combined scenario. The results show that under the baxse scenario, electricity demand increases while effective electricity supply capacity decreases. Consequently, the supply–demand gap increases, and both demand coverage and grid reliability decline over time. The infrastructure investment scenario helps maintain effective supply capacity and reduces the supply–demand gap compared with the baxse scenario; however, it is not sufficient to eliminate the imbalance completely. The demand management scenario reduces the growth of electricity demand, but its overall impact remains limited due to the decline in effective supply capacity. The network quality improvement scenario enhances grid reliability but does not directly reduce the supply–demand gap. Among all scenarios, the combined scenario provides the best performance. By 2045, demand coverage reaches 64.68 percent, grid reliability reaches 0.520, and the supply–demand gap is reduced by 37.20 percent compared with the baxse scenario. Therefore, the main conclusion of this study is that a sustainable reduction in electricity imbalance requires the simultaneous implementation of infrastructure investment, demand management, and distribution network improvement policies.